The extent of viral activity is quantified by calculating the total number of daily transmissions occurring within a localized population. This metric encompasses both reported and unreported cases, which are estimated through our simulation models. The incidence is normalized as number of cases per 100,000 individuals, and classified according to a set of ranges as detailed in the following table.
| Level | Cases per 100,000 ppl |
Activity |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 - 0.03 | Extremely rare |
| 1 | 0.03 - 0.13 | Very rare |
| 2 | 0.13 - 0.33 | Rare |
| 3 | 0.33 - 1.3 | Unlikely |
| 4 | 1.3 - 3.3 | Sporadic |
| 5 | 3.3 - 6.5 | Mild |
| 6 | 6.5 - 13 | Moderate |
| 7 | 13 - 26 | Common |
| 8 | 26 - 52 | Frequent |
| 9 | 52 - 104 | Sustained |
| 10 | 104 - 210 | Widespread |
| 11 | 210 - 420 | High |
| 12 | over 420 | Extremely high |
The daily level of viral activity is characterized by two numerical values.
Activity: 5 -| 6
The first value represents the mean activity level, while the second value denotes the upper confidence interval. Specifically, the first value corresponds to the most likely activity level, whereas the second value indicates that there is an 84% probability that the actual activity level is equal to or below the specified threshold.